Friday, March 07, 2008

GE 2008 -Dreaming Up Scenarios!

I am not a gambler. Neither am I a good investment consultant or advisor. Doing either requires one to postulate positions or events or situations in the near or distant future. That I hate doing because it means I might have to be committed to it. And I hate making commitments. And then I may have to also act on it. And that I hate very much as I'd rather procrastinate.

However, since we are in the General Election season, it is interesting to conjecture. There are so many scenarios out there and any one of them can happen of course. And some certainly will not happen. Like for instance I am rather certain Barisan Nasional will hold on to more than 50% of the seats contested for Parliament. Now, that is a bit of a relief, since by committing to that assumption I don't have to paint a scenario for what if they do only manage to get under 50% of the seats in Parliament. Hmm...I don't even want to contemplate that as much as I might be wishing it alongside my blogging mates out there.

So for the next outcome. Fair enough, there is a sizable number out there for whom anything less than a two-third victory for BN might constitute instability. What exactly they picture in their minds by that is a wonder though. Let me digress a bit and expand on this.

For some it would seem like as if there will be a collapse of the government itself especialy if the BN were to lose more than 50% of the seats. It would seem like as if suddenly all the various institutions of government will go into a seizure and just stop functioning. Hospitals will shut down. The police might be out of a job, (after all to many in the force their job is principally to ensure the ruling BN party and more importantly UMNO is protected at all cost; security vis a vis crime is just ancilliary). Schools will close, Government offices will shut and transportation will grind to a halt and anarchy will reign.

Somehow I cannot understand this. How is it that the BN has governed us for 50 years now and has not managed to make human beings out of us who might be trusted to know right from wrong and will be able to manage our affairs without their overseeing us? It would seem like as if like a herd of sheep or cattle we remain within our safe boundaries so long as the guard dogs are there. But the moment the guard dogs are taken away we go bersek and destroy ourselves.

But then again that is the picture that forms for many who rely on the Mainstream Media for all the information they need to make their opinions and decisions. If only they will allow themselves to indulge in a little thinking. If really such a thing was to happen and the BN actually lost, would it not be that the victors will be celebrating and quickly be working towards governing? So surely they will not be in any mood to be fighting. Certainly they don't want to rule over a fighting lot. So who really is going to cause any problem at all? Yes, that is right. It will be the losers surely. And as it is, they are the ones who are talking about instability because they know they are the ones who will instigate it and cause it too. So I guess, at this time it might just be better that we take note of that threat, because it is indeed a threat, and maybe not give them any reason to excercise that threat.

But then again, as I have already said earlier, that is not exactly a scnario that I will conjecture.

But as to what the next scene might be like it would actually be necessary to look at the personalities and issues that are the real moulders of decisions and actions within UMNO.

Lets cut straight to the chase. Fact is, we all think Khairy wants to be Prime Minister and he needs to get on board to head towards that direction while protector father-in-law is still ruling the roost. But we also know the Deputy Prime Minister, Najib Razak is targeting that position as well. If natural order of things prevail and the so called and much taunted "culture within UMNO" prevails, Najib will be the next PM.

But if Najib becomes the next PM, he knows he does not want lover boy Khairy up his ass all the time scheming and plotting. Najib's men will take over and Khairy might just be history. Khairy cannot allow for that.

General Elections in Malaysia are not just about who takes over parliament and how many seats BN has. It is also about how well BN has performed. And what happens if they don't perform well. Well, for this we got to go back to 1969 as that was the last time it was perceived that the then Alliance made up of UMNO, MCA and MIC supposedly did not do well although they barely got their two-thirds majority. But that was enough for some restless souls in UMNO to initiate what for a long time I had actually thought was racial riots caused by Chinese celebrations and their chiding of the Malays. Of course we all know better now that it was an UMNO grass-roots inspired turmoil perpertrated out of Dato Harun's house in Kampong Baru.

It was short, no doubt. But it did not take too long to displace the Prime Minister then, Tunku Abdul Rahman. Of course the beneficiary was Tun Razak. Najib's father. The point I am making here is that, really, all that was needed was at the GE the Alliance, and if now, BN, makes a poor showing and the wannabes in UMNO can use that as the excuse to purge the leadership.

Badawi, and indeed Khairy more so, need a resounding victory at the GE on the 8th March if they don't want to be purged out of UMNO. Anything like the 1969 victory is good enough to warrant a revolt in UMNO. Only problem is that they cannot use the 1969 solution. Racial riots. If BN does badly, it would be as much the Malays who voted against them as it would be the Chinese and the Indians. Indeed, reading the blogs and listening to some of the ceramahs, it would seem like the Malays are more committed and intense in their despise for BN than the Chinese or the Indians.

Coming back to my conjecture or prediction. I reckon BN, by their measure, would do badly. They may just scrape through and hold their most sacred two-thirds. Or they may just lose that precious two-thirds. In any other country the winning party would be only too pleased and celebrating. But for BN and more so, UMNO, this is just unconscionable! Just unthinkable! Just unacceptable! Ther eia a major losss of face and someone has to go. Obviously, it would have to be Badawi and all those closely identified with him.

But then again we saw how the UMNO leaders behave and what their loyalties are all worth. Remember how they all abandoned Mahathir? Worse than Judas I would say. Rafidah, the crying baby who ran up the stage crying when Mahathir announced he was quitting UMNO, and hardly two years later, she chastises him. I suppose they do't even send each other Hari Raya cards anymore.

Well, that is what I reckon we would see. We would see how, like clock work they would all move about like chess pieces to the side of the perceived champion. Its easy for everyone up there in UMNO. But not so easy with Khairy. He is Son-in-Law after all. Also he certainly has burnt many bridges with most others and especially Najib. But then again he can be a chameleon. After all Badawi is only a father-in-law. And what the hell if she want to go, go lah...That Maya whatever her name is is still around isn't it? Ah, well, conjecturing after all, so let me risk it. I think Najib will dump Khairy at this point.

Yes, this GE might just see the demise of Badawi's administration and of course that is good for the country. We can bid Khairy adeu.

But achieving this is another thing altogether. In 1969, Harun did the May 13. For over 20 years most of us believed the official story line and the Chinese took a greater blame for it.

But unlike May 13, we now have had stuff like the BERSIH rally on 10 November and HINDRAF rally of Nov 25th. You now also see some HINDRAF boys carrying PAS flags and supporting PAS and you also see PAS guys supporting Chinese candidates. There is cohesion and no one believes the other wants to wreck havoc on him just because he is of a different race. I too am willing to support PAS. So there is no racial hatred towards another race really.

Najib cannot resort to the 1969 passage to oust Badawi. He has to do it from within UMNO. And from within UMNO he has to draw his strength and unleash his whip at the most appropriate time, like when Badawi is most vulnerable and weakest. He cannot wait until it is too late by which time Badawi would have gathered his troops to withstand any attempts to oust him.

So I guess by this time, if indeed my conjectures and predictions are valid in any way, Najib should be watching not so much what is going on in the General Elections. I hope he is focusing his attention on UMNO itself. Its nice and ready for a slaughtering. Time of course is of essence.

Well, I'm just a purveyor. I like watching. But as I watch teh GE, I shall also have an eye on UMNO and Najib. Badawi and Khairy. I think a much more interesting battle is begining to take shape in UMNO itself.

But then again, as predictions go, this will have to remain no more than just a prediction. But, I wish it came true actually!

So Najib, here it is. Your best chance to making PM is if you could help throw this GE. Provide youself the excuse and get rid of Badawi. Let this opportunity go and your favourite Pak Lah may just decide that he actually likes flying that plane a lot! Who knows, the mile high club is something worth keeping membership of for as long as you can, right!!


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